Suiting and simulating the growth of rural urbanization in the central part north of Wadi Fatima Basin using the hierarchical analysis method and multi-criteria decision in a geographic information systems environment

Abstract

This study aims to apply spatial modeling to identify areas suitable for rural urban growth using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) within a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. It also simulates the future expansion of rural urbanization in the central-north part of Wadi Fatima Basin until 2060. The study utilized satellite images (Landsat and Sentinel) to derive land use and land cover maps for 2013 and 2023. Based on these, layers of environmental, produc-tion, and living suitability factors were prepared and analyzed.

The results showed that the spatial suitability for rural urban growth in the region ranges from 25.03% in low-suitability areas to 94.9% in highly suitable areas. AHP was used to assign weights to 16 variables influencing urban growth, and a composite suitability map was produced.

Simulation using the Markov Chain model revealed that rural urban areas are expected to expand positively over time: reaching 24.82 km² in 2030 (4.47% of the region), 32.76 km² in 2040 (5.89%), 40.14 km² in 2050 (7.22%), and 47.13 km² in 2060 (8.48%). This study can serve as a reference for rural development planning, helping decision-makers optimize rural land use and enhance the quality of life in rural communities.

Keywords

Religious services: mosques, Hail city, geographical distribution of mosques, geography of services, geographic information systems.

How to Cite

Abdali, M. (2024). Suiting and simulating the growth of rural urbanization in the central part north of Wadi Fatima Basin using the hierarchical analysis method and multi-criteria decision in a geographic information systems environment. Journal of Umm Al-Qura University for Social Sciences,Vol 16(2),pp 41-58. https://doi.org/10.54940/ss72056706